Quick Answer
Opinion Market Signals is a recurring market-intelligence format for explaining what traders are pricing, how that view has changed and what evidence could move it next. Each edition records the snapshot time, current market-implied probability, seven-day change, trading and liquidity context, leading drivers, a credible counter-case, the market’s resolution rules and a direct market link. After a market resolves, the same record is updated with the final result and source.A market probability is a time-stamped price signal—not a guarantee, an Opinion editorial forecast or investment advice.
What Each Weekly Signal Includes
Every published signal should answer the same questions so that readers, search engines and AI systems can interpret it without guessing.How to Read a Market Signal
Probability is a price, not a promise
In a binary prediction market, the price of an outcome can be read as the market’s implied probability at that moment. A later trade, new information or a change in liquidity can move the price. The displayed probability does not mean the outcome is guaranteed, and it is not a recommendation from Opinion. Read What Is a Prediction Market? for the underlying contract mechanics.Seven-day change uses percentage points
A weekly signal compares like with like: the current snapshot against the nearest valid snapshot seven days earlier. The difference is reported in percentage points, not as a relative percentage gain. If comparable historical data is unavailable, the edition should say so rather than estimate it.Volume is not the same as liquidity
Volume records trading activity over a period. Liquidity describes the ability to buy or sell at available prices without excessive price impact. A market can have meaningful historical volume but a wide current spread, or modest volume but useful depth near the current price. Market Signals therefore distinguishes reported volume from spread, visible order-book depth and execution conditions. See Order Books, Spreads and Liquidity for a practical explanation.Drivers are evidence-backed interpretations
A price move can coincide with several news events, and public information does not prove which trade caused the move. Each edition links the strongest relevant evidence and labels the explanation as analysis rather than established causation. The counter-case receives the same treatment. It should identify what the prevailing market view could be missing, what future event could reverse the move and which facts would weaken that alternative.The written rules control the outcome
Headlines do not resolve markets. The exact market question, deadline, edge cases and named source determine the outcome. Every signal links back to those rules before discussing the forecast. For the full process, read What Makes a Prediction Market Resolvable? and Opinion Market Resolution and Disputes.Reusable Market Signal Template
The template below deliberately contains no invented market or probability. Published editions replace every bracketed field with time-stamped information from the linked Opinion market and cited public sources.[Exact market question]
Status: [Live / Closed / Proposed result / Resolved]Snapshot time: [YYYY-MM-DD, HH:MM UTC]Current market-implied probability: [Probability shown on the linked market at the snapshot time]Seven-day change: [Change in percentage points, or “comparable snapshot unavailable”]Volume and liquidity context: [Reported trading volume, observation window, current spread and/or visible depth—only where available]What may be driving the market:
- [Source-linked development]
- [Source-linked development]
Publication and Update Standard
An Opinion Market Signal follows these rules:- Record before interpreting. Capture the market URL, price, snapshot time and relevant trading context before writing the narrative.
- Preserve the original wording. Do not shorten a market question in a way that changes its meaning.
- Keep units explicit. Label probability, percentage-point change, volume window and time zone.
- Separate observation from explanation. A price move is observed data; its driver is an evidence-based interpretation unless a direct causal source exists.
- Include a counter-case. A useful market brief explains what could make the current consensus wrong.
- Link the controlling rule. A summary never replaces the complete resolution criteria on the market page.
- Correct transparently. Material factual changes should update the modified date and explain what changed.
- Close the loop. When the market resolves, add the final outcome and source instead of abandoning the live article.
What a Resolved Follow-Up Should Show
After settlement, the update should include:- the final outcome and resolution timestamp;
- the resolution evidence identified by the market rules;
- the last valid pre-resolution snapshot;
- whether a dispute was opened and its final status, where applicable;
- which drivers or counter-cases proved relevant;
- a direct link to the resolved market.
Use Market Signals Responsibly
Prediction-market probabilities can aggregate information, but they can also reflect limited liquidity, participant concentration, temporary news reactions and incomplete information. Before acting on a signal:- open the live market and confirm that the snapshot is still current;
- read the complete resolution rules and deadline;
- inspect the spread, available quantity and order preview;
- verify availability and eligibility for your jurisdiction;
- use only an amount you can afford to lose.
Explore live markets on Opinion
Verify current probabilities, market rules and available trading conditions directly in the official app.
Related Guides
How to Trade Before Resolution
Understand how a position can change value while a market is still live.
How the Opinion AI Oracle Works
Learn how Opinion approaches market creation and evidence-based resolution.
Market Resolution and Disputes
Follow the process from proposed outcome to final settlement.
Prediction Markets for Beginners
Start with prices, probabilities, trading mechanics and risks.
FAQ
What is Opinion Market Signals?
What is Opinion Market Signals?
Opinion Market Signals is a recurring editorial format that records selected Opinion market probabilities, weekly changes, trading context, supporting evidence, counter-cases and final resolutions in a consistent, source-linked structure.
Is a market-implied probability an Opinion forecast?
Is a market-implied probability an Opinion forecast?
No. It is a price formed by trading activity at a specific moment. Opinion Market Signals reports and explains that market price; it does not guarantee the result or turn the number into editorial advice.
Why include a snapshot time?
Why include a snapshot time?
A live probability can change after new information or trades. The timestamp tells readers exactly when the reported number was observed and prevents an older snapshot from being mistaken for the current market.
Why show both volume and liquidity?
Why show both volume and liquidity?
They answer different questions. Volume measures completed trading over a period, while spread and depth help describe the prices and quantity available now. Neither should be substituted for the other.
What happens after a featured market resolves?
What happens after a featured market resolves?
The signal should be updated with the final result, timestamp, rule-based evidence and dispute status where applicable. That preserves the original snapshot while completing the market’s record.
Sources & References
- Opinion.trade — live market questions, probabilities, trading context and market-specific rules
- OPINION Docs — current product and Opinion Stack documentation
- OPINION Docs — Resolution — market-specific resolution methods and outcome process
- OPINION Docs — Dispute — challenge reasons, requirements and review process
- OPINION Docs — Fees — current trading-fee guidance