Whether you’re new to prediction markets or already trading them, this is your starting point. Read in any order — every article is short, has one diagram, and ends with a FAQ.
What you’ll get here
The basics, plainly
What a prediction market actually is, why prices read like probabilities, and the difference between trading a market and taking sportsbook odds.
Platform comparisons
Side-by-side breakdowns of Polymarket, Kalshi, and Opinion — fees, regulation, market depth, and which fits your use case.
The 2026 World Cup
Tournament winner, group stage, top scorer — and how to read live probabilities before, during, and after kickoff.
New here?
If you’ve never touched a prediction market before, this is the gentlest path:Start with the beginner walkthrough
A 2026 step-by-step guide. We’ll explain what to expect on your first trade — order books, spreads, exits, resolution — and what makes a market easier or harder for newcomers.
Already trading on Polymarket or Kalshi?
Jump straight to where Opinion fits in the category:How Opinion is different
The agentic AI oracle, the lowest sports-category fees, and where each of the three platforms wins.
The full fee breakdown
Real formulas from each platform’s official docs, with worked examples at 500, and $5,000 trade sizes.
Why this exists
Prediction markets are a new way to read uncertainty. Instead of asking “what do people say will happen?”, they ask “what price are people willing to trade at?” — and the answer is a live probability that updates as new information arrives. This site is a small library for understanding that probability layer. It’s especially focused on sports, esports, and the 2026 World Cup — the events where probability and culture overlap most naturally. Read what’s useful. Skip what isn’t. Come back as new articles ship.Join the community
X / Twitter
Daily market commentary, probability shifts, and news.
Discord
Live discussions, trader chat, and product updates.
YouTube
Short explainers and walkthroughs of how markets work.
Medium
Long-form roadmap and narrative pieces.