> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://blog.opinion.trade/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.
# Opinion Market Signals: Weekly Prediction Market Insights
> A transparent framework for reading weekly Opinion prediction-market probabilities, changes, liquidity, news drivers, counter-cases and resolved outcomes.
## Quick Answer
**Opinion Market Signals is a recurring market-intelligence format for explaining what traders are pricing, how that view has changed and what evidence could move it next.** Each edition records the snapshot time, current market-implied probability, seven-day change, trading and liquidity context, leading drivers, a credible counter-case, the market's resolution rules and a direct market link. After a market resolves, the same record is updated with the final result and source.
A market probability is a time-stamped price signal—not a guarantee, an Opinion editorial forecast or investment advice.
## What Each Weekly Signal Includes
Every published signal should answer the same questions so that readers, search engines and AI systems can interpret it without guessing.
| Field | What we publish | Why it matters |
| ------------------------ | ----------------------------------------------------------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| **Market question** | The exact question shown on Opinion | Small wording differences can change what a contract means |
| **Snapshot time** | Date, time and time zone—normally UTC | Probabilities can move quickly; a number without a timestamp is incomplete |
| **Current probability** | The market-implied probability visible at the snapshot | Captures the market's current consensus, not certainty |
| **Seven-day change** | Change from a comparable snapshot, stated in percentage points | Separates direction and momentum from the current level |
| **Volume and liquidity** | Available volume plus spread or order-book depth where observable | Trading activity and ease of execution are related but not interchangeable |
| **Main drivers** | Source-linked developments that may help explain the move | Connects the price change to verifiable public information |
| **Counter-case** | The strongest evidence or scenario pointing the other way | Prevents a one-sided narrative from being presented as fact |
| **Rules and sources** | Deadline, resolution conditions and controlling source | Defines what actually makes the contract settle Yes, No or another outcome |
| **Market link** | Direct link to the live Opinion market | Lets readers verify the current price and full rules themselves |
| **Resolved follow-up** | Final outcome, resolution time, evidence and any dispute status | Turns a live snapshot into a permanent, auditable record |
## How to Read a Market Signal
### Probability is a price, not a promise
In a binary prediction market, the price of an outcome can be read as the market's implied probability at that moment. A later trade, new information or a change in liquidity can move the price. The displayed probability does not mean the outcome is guaranteed, and it is not a recommendation from Opinion.
Read [What Is a Prediction Market?](/learn/what-is-a-prediction-market) for the underlying contract mechanics.
### Seven-day change uses percentage points
A weekly signal compares like with like: the current snapshot against the nearest valid snapshot seven days earlier. The difference is reported in **percentage points**, not as a relative percentage gain. If comparable historical data is unavailable, the edition should say so rather than estimate it.
### Volume is not the same as liquidity
Volume records trading activity over a period. Liquidity describes the ability to buy or sell at available prices without excessive price impact. A market can have meaningful historical volume but a wide current spread, or modest volume but useful depth near the current price.
Market Signals therefore distinguishes reported volume from spread, visible order-book depth and execution conditions. See [Order Books, Spreads and Liquidity](/learn/order-book-spread-liquidity) for a practical explanation.
### Drivers are evidence-backed interpretations
A price move can coincide with several news events, and public information does not prove which trade caused the move. Each edition links the strongest relevant evidence and labels the explanation as analysis rather than established causation.
The counter-case receives the same treatment. It should identify what the prevailing market view could be missing, what future event could reverse the move and which facts would weaken that alternative.
### The written rules control the outcome
Headlines do not resolve markets. The exact market question, deadline, edge cases and named source determine the outcome. Every signal links back to those rules before discussing the forecast.
For the full process, read [What Makes a Prediction Market Resolvable?](/learn/what-makes-a-prediction-market-resolvable) and [Opinion Market Resolution and Disputes](/learn/opinion-market-resolution-and-disputes).
## Reusable Market Signal Template
The template below deliberately contains **no invented market or probability**. Published editions replace every bracketed field with time-stamped information from the linked Opinion market and cited public sources.
**Status:** \[Live / Closed / Proposed result / Resolved]
**Snapshot time:** \[YYYY-MM-DD, HH:MM UTC]
**Current market-implied probability:** \[Probability shown on the linked market at the snapshot time]
**Seven-day change:** \[Change in percentage points, or “comparable snapshot unavailable”]
**Volume and liquidity context:** \[Reported trading volume, observation window, current spread and/or visible depth—only where available]
**What may be driving the market:**
* \[Source-linked development]
* \[Source-linked development]
**Counter-case:** \[Strongest evidence or scenario that could move the probability in the opposite direction]
**What would change the signal:** \[Specific upcoming decision, data release, match, deadline or other verifiable catalyst]
**Resolution rule and source:** \[Plain-language summary, with a direct link to the complete market rules]
**Trade or verify the market:** \[Direct Opinion market URL]
**Resolved follow-up:** \[Final result, resolution timestamp, cited evidence and dispute status; marked pending while the market remains live]
## Publication and Update Standard
An Opinion Market Signal follows these rules:
1. **Record before interpreting.** Capture the market URL, price, snapshot time and relevant trading context before writing the narrative.
2. **Preserve the original wording.** Do not shorten a market question in a way that changes its meaning.
3. **Keep units explicit.** Label probability, percentage-point change, volume window and time zone.
4. **Separate observation from explanation.** A price move is observed data; its driver is an evidence-based interpretation unless a direct causal source exists.
5. **Include a counter-case.** A useful market brief explains what could make the current consensus wrong.
6. **Link the controlling rule.** A summary never replaces the complete resolution criteria on the market page.
7. **Correct transparently.** Material factual changes should update the modified date and explain what changed.
8. **Close the loop.** When the market resolves, add the final outcome and source instead of abandoning the live article.
This structure makes each edition useful both as current market analysis and as a permanent record of what the market believed before the outcome was known.
## What a Resolved Follow-Up Should Show
After settlement, the update should include:
* the final outcome and resolution timestamp;
* the resolution evidence identified by the market rules;
* the last valid pre-resolution snapshot;
* whether a dispute was opened and its final status, where applicable;
* which drivers or counter-cases proved relevant;
* a direct link to the resolved market.
The purpose is not to declare the market “right” or “wrong” from one final price. It is to preserve an inspectable timeline: what participants priced, when the information changed and how the written contract was settled.
## Use Market Signals Responsibly
Prediction-market probabilities can aggregate information, but they can also reflect limited liquidity, participant concentration, temporary news reactions and incomplete information. Before acting on a signal:
* open the live market and confirm that the snapshot is still current;
* read the complete resolution rules and deadline;
* inspect the spread, available quantity and order preview;
* verify availability and eligibility for your jurisdiction;
* use only an amount you can afford to lose.
Read [Where Is Opinion.trade Available?](/learn/opinion-availability-and-eligibility) and [Opinion Fees Explained](/learn/opinion-fees-explained) before trading.
Verify current probabilities, market rules and available trading conditions directly in the official app.
## Related Guides
Understand how a position can change value while a market is still live.
Learn how Opinion approaches market creation and evidence-based resolution.
Follow the process from proposed outcome to final settlement.
Start with prices, probabilities, trading mechanics and risks.
## FAQ
Opinion Market Signals is a recurring editorial format that records selected Opinion market probabilities, weekly changes, trading context, supporting evidence, counter-cases and final resolutions in a consistent, source-linked structure.
No. It is a price formed by trading activity at a specific moment. Opinion Market Signals reports and explains that market price; it does not guarantee the result or turn the number into editorial advice.
A live probability can change after new information or trades. The timestamp tells readers exactly when the reported number was observed and prevents an older snapshot from being mistaken for the current market.
They answer different questions. Volume measures completed trading over a period, while spread and depth help describe the prices and quantity available now. Neither should be substituted for the other.
The signal should be updated with the final result, timestamp, rule-based evidence and dispute status where applicable. That preserves the original snapshot while completing the market's record.
## Sources & References
1. [Opinion.trade](https://app.opinion.trade/) — live market questions, probabilities, trading context and market-specific rules
2. [OPINION Docs](https://docs.opinion.trade/) — current product and Opinion Stack documentation
3. [OPINION Docs — Resolution](https://docs.opinion.trade/trade-on-opinion.trade/resolution) — market-specific resolution methods and outcome process
4. [OPINION Docs — Dispute](https://docs.opinion.trade/trade-on-opinion.trade/dispute) — challenge reasons, requirements and review process
5. [OPINION Docs — Fees](https://docs.opinion.trade/trade-on-opinion.trade/fees) — current trading-fee guidance
*Methodology published 2026-09-21. Live prices, volume, liquidity, market rules and product conditions can change; each linked market and the current official documentation take precedence. Educational information only, not investment advice.*